Chase Wang — WritingResearch, analysis and essays by Chase Wang.https://chasewang.me/writing2026-08-23T00:00:00ZChase Wanghttps://chasewang.me/Arc 这次更像一张待验货的三层分工图tag:chasewang.me,2026:writing/arc2026-08-23T00:00:00Z2026-08-23T00:00:00ZCircle 把 Arc public mainnet 的时间点指向 September 16, 2026，并把 BlackRock、Visa、Mastercard、DTCC、ICE 等名字放进 founding validators。同一条披露里，Aave、Morpho、Uniswap 也容易被读成同一张名单。我现在更愿意先把它当成一张还没完成验货的机构结算分工图：有些名字对应网络验证，有些对应资产与清算接口，有些只是应用和流动性出口。这个边界来自 Circle 的公告、外部报道和技术文档；它能支持 pre-launch 的结构判断，还不能支持 launch-day live status 或每个 partner 已经执行完成的结论。如果 Agent 可以花钱，真正难的可能是谁允许它花tag:chasewang.me,2026:writing/agent2026-08-20T00:00:00Z2026-08-20T00:00:00ZBrian Armstrong 在 AiFi 相关帖文 里主张：agent 需要可编程、全球、即时、低费用的钱，并把 crypto 框成 AiFi，也就是 agentic finance 的货币。我把这句话和 Coinbase x402、Google AP2、Visa 以及几篇独立分析放在一起看后，更愿意把结论先收窄：公开材料支持的不是“crypto 已经证明自己会成为 AiFi 的钱”，而是 crypto 可能成为 agentic finance 的结算层，尤其适合机器可读、低风险、即时交付的数字资源。一旦 agent 真的能花钱，后面更难的产品面大概率会落到授权、限额、身份、审计、撤销、退款、争议与责任归属。Crypto 重大刑事、民事事件与 BTC（2013–2026）tag:chasewang.me,2026:writing/crypto-crime-and-enforcement2026-08-10T00:00:00Z2026-08-10T00:00:00Z一份有来源、可复现的 Crypto 风险时间轴：49 个刑事与司法节点、13 个民事与监管节点、12 个线下暴力或可疑死亡节点，并用 BTC 的 1、7、30 日事件窗口区分真正的提款与信用冲击。结论不是“执法等于利空”，而是可提现性、资产负债表和核心基础设施是否突然失效。Crypto 的刑事风险，已经从 K 线走到家门口tag:chasewang.me,2026:writing/crypto-k2026-08-10T00:00:00Z2026-08-10T00:00:00Z我把 2013 至 2026 年 74 个重大 Crypto 刑事、民事、政策和线下暴力节点放进一张 BTC 时间轴。第一眼最反直觉：执法消息通常没把 BTC 砸下去，真正的大跌几乎都发生在提款、资产负债表或核心基础设施突然失效的时候。AI 泡沫焦虑，可能走向 BTC 的流动性交易tag:chasewang.me,2026:writing/ai-btc2026-08-09T00:00:00Z2026-08-09T00:00:00ZAI bubble 以前，市场更多是在问 equity 问题：AI 股票贵不贵，earnings 能不能追上，capex 会不会压低利润率。Hayes 在 Situationship 里换了一个角度。他没有沿着普通的 2000-style earnings story 往下讲，而是把注意力放到 credit-financed infrastructure cycle 上，甚至推到 2008-style credit story，并给出 BTC 到 $1 million 的预测。AI Workflow: Practitioner's Field Maptag:chasewang.me,2026:writing/ai-workflow-field-map2026-05-23T00:00:00Z2026-05-23T00:00:00ZThirty-six entries across six clusters, six active debates, and a source-backed map of the practices that turn one-off AI sessions into systems that compound.The Three-Body Problem of Crypto Dominancetag:chasewang.me,2026:writing/three-body-problem-of-crypto-dominance2026-04-21T00:00:00Z2026-04-21T00:00:00ZTwo thousand years after the Discourses on Salt and Iron, crypto's leading firms are replaying the same argument. Across stablecoins (USDT/USDC), exchanges (Binance/Coinbase) and L1s (BTC/ETH), the pattern is identical: every category has a low-public-goods leader and a high-public-goods number-two, coexisting for a decade. Neither escapes the triangle — they've just picked different pairs of vertices.从公地悲剧到算力美元：币圈的救赎之路？tag:chasewang.me,2026:writing/from-tragedy-of-commons-to-compute-dollar2026-03-22T00:00:00Z2026-03-22T00:00:00ZCrypto 的结构性出路只有两条：被纳入一个有最终贷款人的体系，或自身形成良性的资本循环。两条路有一条走通就行——最好两条都走。从韩国 1997 年到欧洲美元市场，再到正在到来的「石油 + 算力美元」，这是一份关于行业制度化与算力经济的乐观长文。Everyone Is Doing the Right Thing. But The Industry Is Dying.tag:chasewang.me,2026:writing/fallacy-of-composition2026-03-15T00:00:00Z2026-03-15T00:00:00ZAsk anyone in crypto whether they've done anything wrong. The answer, almost universally, is no. Project teams unlocked tokens on schedule per the whitepaper. VCs took early risk and exited. Market makers provided liquidity. KOLs shared views. Retail followed signals. Every participant has a point. Yet the industry has become what it is today.What Is a Crypto-Body?tag:chasewang.me,2026:writing/what-is-a-crypto-body2025-01-01T00:00:00Z2025-01-01T00:00:00ZA blockchain can be more than a payment rail. This paper proposes five criteria for when a ledger becomes a programmable institutional substrate, then examines Ethereum as the most complete current specimen.